import { useState, useEffect } from “react”;
import { BarChart, Bar, XAxis, YAxis, Tooltip, ResponsiveContainer, RadarChart, PolarGrid, PolarAngleAxis, PolarRadiusAxis, Radar, Legend, Cell } from “recharts”;

const C = {
bg: “#f7f7f5”,
white: “#ffffff”,
border: “#e0ddd8”,
borderLight: “#ece9e4”,
accent: “#b8102e”,
accentLight: “#fceef0”,
dark: “#1a1a1a”,
body: “#333333”,
caption: “#6b6b6b”,
muted: “#999999”,
iran: “#b8102e”,
iranLight: “#fceef0”,
us: “#1e5fa6”,
usLight: “#eaf1f9”,
green: “#1a7a3a”,
greenLight: “#e8f5ec”,
amber: “#a16207”,
amberLight: “#fef9ec”,
gridLine: “#e8e5e0”,
};

const font = {
display: “‘Playfair Display’, Georgia, ‘Times New Roman’, serif”,
body: “‘Source Sans 3’, ‘Helvetica Neue’, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif”,
mono: “‘DM Mono’, ‘Courier New’, monospace”,
};

const outcomes = [
{ name: “War continuation beyond 30 more days”, prob: 55, trend: “Steady”, detail: “Both sides remain entrenched in an asymmetric stalemate. The US dominates the air domain but Iran maintains effective control of the Strait of Hormuz. Neither side has achieved its stated objectives — the US has not forced Iranian capitulation, and Iran has not expelled US forces from the region. The April 6 deadline for energy strikes is the third such extension, suggesting the administration is reluctant to follow through on its most extreme threats.” },
{ name: “Escalation to regional war”, prob: 30, trend: “Rising”, detail: “The conflict has already expanded well beyond the Iran-US bilateral axis. Hezbollah has engaged Israel in a full-scale Lebanon war with over 1,100 killed. Yemen’s Houthis have resumed missile attacks on Israel. Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces have struck US bases. Gulf states — the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Kuwait — have all sustained Iranian missile or drone strikes. An attack targeted the residence of KRG President Nechirvan Barzani.” },
{ name: “US ground operation”, prob: 25, trend: “Rising”, detail: “The Pentagon has deployed 3,500 Marines aboard the USS Tripoli and alerted soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division. The Washington Post reported discussions about seizing Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil export hub, and raiding coastal areas near the Strait of Hormuz. Trump told the Financial Times he had ‘a lot of options’ regarding Kharg Island. Iran’s parliament speaker warned that Iranian forces are ‘waiting for the arrival of American soldiers on the ground.'” },
{ name: “Partial ceasefire or de-escalation”, prob: 20, trend: “Rising”, detail: “Pakistan has emerged as the primary mediator, hosting foreign ministers from Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Egypt in Islamabad. Pakistan’s army commander Asim Munir has served as the key interlocutor. Some ships have been permitted through the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian approval — about 6 per day compared with 135 in normal times. Trump has described negotiations as going ‘extremely well,’ though Iran denies direct talks are taking place.” },
{ name: “Regime change in Iran (12-month horizon)”, prob: 18, trend: “Uncertain”, detail: “The Atlantic identified five conditions for revolution and assessed them as ‘nearly’ met. However, Carnegie’s analysis of authoritarian resilience warns that security force loyalty — which held through the January massacre of an estimated 30,000 protesters — is the decisive blocking factor. The opposition remains fragmented between monarchists (Pahlavi), the MEK, Kurdish parties and reformists. German Chancellor Merz stated regime change is ‘unlikely’ based on past precedents.” },
{ name: “Frozen conflict or new status quo”, prob: 15, trend: “Rising”, detail: “Iran is effectively converting the Strait of Hormuz into a toll road, with vessels required to coordinate with IRGC intermediaries and pay fees for transit. Bloomberg data shows Iran’s own oil exports have increased 8% during the war, flowing primarily to China. This arrangement could harden into a permanent feature if neither side forces a resolution, creating a de facto new maritime order in the Persian Gulf.” },
{ name: “Iranian nuclear escalation”, prob: 10, trend: “Rising”, detail: “Iran’s parliament is debating withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Nuclear facilities were damaged in the initial strikes but not fully destroyed. Pre-war enrichment had reached 60%. The IAEA has been denied access to damaged sites. If Iran pursues a weapons programme, the breakout timeline could be measured in weeks. This represents the single highest-consequence low-probability outcome.” },
{ name: “Comprehensive peace deal”, prob: 8, trend: “Low”, detail: “The US 15-point plan demands total nuclear disarmament, cessation of enrichment, handover of enriched uranium stocks, limits on missiles, an end to proxy support and freedom of navigation in the Strait. Iran has rejected this as ‘excessive, unrealistic and unreasonable.’ Iran’s counter-demands include reparations, closure of US bases, formalised control over Hormuz transit and lifting of all sanctions. The bargaining range between these positions is functionally zero.” },
];

const forceData = [
{ dim: “Air superiority”, iran: 5, us: 95 },
{ dim: “Precision strike”, iran: 25, us: 95 },
{ dim: “Air defence”, iran: 10, us: 90 },
{ dim: “Command and control”, iran: 20, us: 85 },
{ dim: “Force readiness”, iran: 35, us: 85 },
{ dim: “Technology”, iran: 10, us: 95 },
{ dim: “Asymmetric capability”, iran: 75, us: 20 },
{ dim: “Casualty tolerance”, iran: 70, us: 30 },
{ dim: “Maritime control (Hormuz)”, iran: 70, us: 40 },
{ dim: “Proxy networks”, iran: 50, us: 10 },
];

const radarData = [
{ axis: “Air”, Iran: 5, US: 95 },
{ axis: “Precision”, Iran: 25, US: 95 },
{ axis: “Asymmetric”, Iran: 75, US: 20 },
{ axis: “Maritime”, Iran: 70, US: 40 },
{ axis: “Cyber/Info”, Iran: 35, US: 85 },
{ axis: “Nuclear”, Iran: 30, US: 95 },
{ axis: “Proxy”, Iran: 50, US: 10 },
{ axis: “Endurance”, Iran: 70, US: 30 },
];

const dealFactors = {
favoring: [
{ factor: “Mutual economic pain”, weight: 10, detail: “Brent crude above $116 per barrel. S&P 500 in four consecutive weeks of decline. Over 3,200 ships stranded in or around the Persian Gulf.” },
{ factor: “Pakistan mediation channel”, weight: 8, detail: “Four-country format established with Pakistan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Pakistan army chief acting as direct interlocutor with both sides.” },
{ factor: “Trump’s stated desire for a deal”, weight: 7, detail: “The president has described negotiations as going ‘extremely well’ and repeatedly extended energy-strike deadlines, suggesting a preference for a negotiated exit.” },
{ factor: “Rising war costs”, weight: 6, detail: “The administration is seeking a $200 billion war supplemental from Congress. US casualties stand at 13 killed and over 300 wounded. Global economic disruption is accelerating.” },
{ factor: “Partial Hormuz opening”, weight: 3, detail: “Iran released 20 oil tankers as a reported gesture. A transit-fee system is emerging with vessels coordinating passage through IRGC intermediaries.” },
],
blocking: [
{ factor: “Demand gap”, weight: 15, detail: “The US demands total nuclear disarmament. Iran demands reparations, base closures, and formalised Hormuz control. There is near-zero overlap between these positions.” },
{ factor: “Trust deficit”, weight: 12, detail: “The US-Israeli strikes were launched on 28 February — one day after Oman announced a diplomatic ‘breakthrough’ in which Iran had agreed to downgrade enriched uranium and accept full IAEA verification.” },
{ factor: “Absence of face-saving exit”, weight: 10, detail: “Iran’s leadership cannot accept terms that appear to be capitulation. The regime killed an estimated 30,000 of its own citizens in January to maintain control; accepting US dictation would undermine that position fatally.” },
{ factor: “Commitment problem (Fearon)”, weight: 10, detail: “The attack during active negotiations creates a structural trust failure. Any future agreement lacks credibility because Iran has no reason to believe the US will honour its commitments.” },
{ factor: “Israeli escalation”, weight: 8, detail: “Netanyahu has ordered maximum destruction of Iran’s arms industry. Israel has stated it has no intention of scaling back strikes regardless of diplomatic developments.” },
{ factor: “Iranian rejectionism”, weight: 8, detail: “The 15-point plan was rejected as ‘excessive.’ The IRGC remains ideologically committed to confrontation. Iran’s five-point counter-offer demands conditions Washington cannot accept.” },
{ factor: “Ground operations planning”, weight: 7, detail: “Continued deployment of Marines, alerting of the 82nd Airborne, and public discussion of Kharg Island seizure signal to Tehran that Washington is not negotiating in good faith.” },
],
};

const regimeConditions = [
{ condition: “Fiscal crisis”, status: “Met”, score: 90, color: C.accent, detail: “The rial has lost over 60% of its value in twelve months. Inflation exceeds 40%. The World Bank projected negative growth for both 2025 and 2026. Oil revenue is disrupted. Sanctions are at maximum pressure levels.” },
{ condition: “Divided elites”, status: “Partial”, score: 45, color: C.amber, detail: “Reformists and hardliners have aligned under external threat, but the succession crisis following Khamenei’s death creates latent instability. Mojtaba Khamenei has not appeared publicly since being appointed supreme leader.” },
{ condition: “Diverse opposition”, status: “Partial”, score: 30, color: C.amber, detail: “Multiple opposition currents exist — monarchists behind Pahlavi, the MEK, Kurdish parties (PDKI, PJAK, KDP-I, Komala, PAK), and reformists — but they offer competing visions and lack unified leadership inside Iran.” },
{ condition: “Resistance narrative”, status: “Partial”, score: 55, color: C.amber, detail: “‘Death to the Dictator’ was chanted across 200 cities in January. The Lion and Sun flag has become a protest symbol. But the regime’s counter-narrative of defending Iran against foreign aggression also resonates.” },
{ condition: “International environment”, status: “Partial”, score: 50, color: C.amber, detail: “The US explicitly supports regime change. Pahlavi has presented a 180-day governance transition plan. But the war itself is widely condemned internationally, and no coherent multilateral transition framework exists.” },
];

const regimeBlocking = [
{ factor: “Security force loyalty”, score: 75, detail: “The decisive variable. No defections were observed during the January crackdown that killed an estimated 30,000 people, nor during the current war. The IRGC’s internal security apparatus remains functional despite degradation of its conventional military capabilities.” },
{ factor: “Opposition fragmentation”, score: 70, detail: “Pahlavi’s monarchist movement, the MEK, Kurdish parties and reformists cannot agree on a post-regime vision. The exile opposition held rallies of up to 350,000 people but lacks organisational capacity and legitimacy inside Iran.” },
{ factor: “Rally-around-the-flag effect”, score: 55, detail: “The US-Israeli attack has generated nationalist solidarity even among Iranians who oppose the regime. The framing of the conflict as defence of the homeland temporarily suppresses domestic opposition dynamics.” },
];

const keyVars = [
{ code: “BARGAIN_RANGE”, name: “Bargaining range width”, iran: 0.10, us: 0.10, bl: 0.30, note: “Near-zero overlap between US and Iranian demands” },
{ code: “CHKN_TENS”, name: “Chicken game tension”, iran: 0.85, us: 0.85, bl: 0.30, note: “April 6 deadline; Hormuz closure vs energy strikes” },
{ code: “COMMIT_PROB”, name: “Commitment problem severity”, iran: 0.80, us: 0.70, bl: 0.40, note: “War launched during diplomatic breakthrough” },
{ code: “FACE_SAVING”, name: “Face-saving exit availability”, iran: 0.15, us: 0.25, bl: 0.30, note: “Neither side can accept terms without loss of position” },
{ code: “HURTING_STALE”, name: “Mutually hurting stalemate”, iran: 0.50, us: 0.40, bl: 0.20, note: “Emerging: US air dominance vs Iran Hormuz control” },
{ code: “RIPENESS”, name: “Conflict ripeness”, iran: 0.30, us: 0.30, bl: 0.20, note: “Not yet ripe — both believe escalation improves position” },
{ code: “WAY_OUT”, name: “Perceived way out”, iran: 0.20, us: 0.30, bl: 0.30, note: “Pakistan channel is only viable diplomatic track” },
{ code: “INADV_ESC”, name: “Inadvertent escalation risk”, iran: 0.70, us: 0.60, bl: 0.20, note: “Multiple fronts, Gulf states hit, ground ops planned” },
];

const Tip = ({ active, payload, label }) => {
if (!active || !payload?.length) return null;
return (

);
};

function Section({ title, sub, children }) {
return (

);
}

function Card({ children, style = {} }) {
return (

);
}

function MetricBox({ label, value, sub, borderColor = C.border }) {
return (

);
}

export default function Dashboard() {
const [activeTab, setActiveTab] = useState(“overview”);
const [expandedOutcome, setExpandedOutcome] = useState(null);

const tabs = [
{ id: “overview”, label: “Situation overview” },
{ id: “military”, label: “Force balance” },
{ id: “deal”, label: “Deal analysis” },
{ id: “regime”, label: “Regime change” },
{ id: “variables”, label: “Key variables” },
];

return (

);
}